E tino akiaki ana ngā tohunga o te ao mō te hiko o te rā kia whakapau kaha ki te tipu tonu o te hanga me te whakatinanatanga o te photovoltaic (PV) hei whakakaha i te ao, me te kī ko te whakaiti i ngā matapae mō te tipu PV i te tatari mō te whakaae mō ētahi atu huarahi hiko, te putanga mai rānei o ngā merekara hangarau i te meneti whakamutunga "kāore he kōwhiringa."
Ko te whakaae a ngā kaiuru i te 3rdI te tau kua hipa, i whai a Terawatt Workshop i ngā matapae nui haere mai i ngā rōpū maha huri noa i te ao mō te hiahia mō ngā PV nui hei akiaki i te hiko me te whakaiti i te hau kati kōtuhi. Nā te pikinga ake o te whakaae ki te hangarau PV kua akiaki i ngā tohunga ki te kī e hiahiatia ana kia 75 terawatts, neke atu rānei, o ngā PV e whakamahia ana puta noa i te ao i te tau 2050 hei whakatutuki i ngā whāinga whakakore waro.
I te awheawhe, i arahina e ngā māngai o te National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), te Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy i Tiamana, me te National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology i Hapani, i huihui mai ngā kaiārahi o te ao katoa i roto i te PV, te whakaurunga whatunga, te tātari, me te rokiroki pūngao, mai i ngā whare rangahau, te ao mātauranga, me te ahumahi. I aro te hui tuatahi, i te tau 2016, ki te wero o te tae atu ki te 3 terawatts i te iti rawa i te tau 2030.
Nā te hui o te tau 2018 i neke ake te whāinga, ki te 10 TW pea i te tau 2030, ā, ki te toru ngā whakarea o taua nui i te tau 2050. I angitu hoki te matapae a ngā kaiuru i taua awheawhe ka eke te whakaputanga hiko o te ao mai i te PV ki te 1 TW i roto i ngā tau e rima e whai ake nei. I whitihia taua paepae i te tau kua hipa.
"Kua tino ahu whakamua mātou, engari me mahi tonu me te whakateretere ngā whāinga," te kī a Nancy Haegel, te kaiwhakahaere o te National Center for Photovoltaics i NREL. Ko Haegel te kaituhi matua o te tuhinga hou i roto i te hautakaPūtaiao, “Te Pūngao Whakaahua i te Tauine Maha-Terawatt: Ehara te Tatari i te Kōwhiringa.” E tohu ana ngā kaituhi tahi i ngā whare wānanga e 41 mai i ngā whenua e 15.
"He mea nui te wā, nō reira he mea nui kia whakatakotohia e tātou ngā whāinga nui, kia taea hoki te whakatutuki, kia whai pānga nui," te kī a Martin Keller, te kaiwhakahaere o NREL. "He nui te ahunga whakamua i roto i te ao o te pūngao rā photovoltaic, ā, e mōhio ana ahau ka taea e tātou te whakatutuki i ngā mea maha atu i a tātou e haere tonu ana ki te auaha me te mahi tere."
Ka taea e te hihi o te rā te whakarato i te nui o te pūngao hei whakatutuki i ngā hiahia pūngao o te Ao, engari he iti noa iho te ōrau e whakamahia ana. Ko te nui o te hiko i tukuna puta noa i te ao e te PV i tino piki ake mai i te iti rawa i te tau 2010 ki te 4-5% i te tau 2022.
I roto i te pūrongo o te awheawhe, i kīia "kei te kati haere te matapihi ki te mahi i ngā mahi nui hei whakaiti i ngā tukunga hau kati kōtuhi, me te whakatutuki i ngā hiahia pūngao o te ao mō ngā rā kei te heke mai." Ko te PV tētahi o ngā kōwhiringa ruarua ka taea te whakamahi tonu hei whakakapi i ngā wahie pūmua. "Ko tētahi mōrearea nui mō te tekau tau e whai ake nei ko te whakaaro kino, te hē rānei i te whakatauira i te tipu e hiahiatia ana i roto i te umanga PV, kātahi ka mōhio kua roa kua hē tātou i te taha iti, me te hiahia ki te whakanui ake i te hanga me te whakatinanatanga ki ngā taumata kāore i te tino pono, kāore rānei e taea te pupuri."
Mā te whakatutuki i te whāinga 75-terawatt, e ai ki ngā kaituhi, ka nui ngā tono ka tukuna ki ngā kaihanga PV me te hapori pūtaiao. Hei tauira:
- Me whakaiti e ngā kaihanga o ngā panera rā silicon te nui o te hiriwa e whakamahia ana kia taea ai te whakamahi i te hangarau i te tauine maha-terawatt.
- Me haere tonu te tipu o te umanga PV i te tere o te 25% ia tau i roto i ngā tau tino nui e whai ake nei.
- Me mahi tonu te umanga ki te auaha hei whakapai ake i te pumau o ngā rauemi me te whakaiti i tōna tapuwae taiao.
I kī anō ngā kaiuru o te awheawhe me hanga anō te hangarau o te rā kia pai ai te hoahoa taiao me te porowhita, ahakoa ehara te hangarua rauemi i te otinga whai hua i tēnei wā mō ngā tono rauemi i te mea he iti noa ngā tāutanga tae noa ki tēnei wā, ki te whakaritea ki ngā tono o ngā tekau tau e rua e whai ake nei.
E ai ki te pūrongo, ko te whāinga o te 75 terawatts o te PV kua tāutahia "he wero nui, he ara whakamua hoki e wātea ana. Ko ngā hītori o nāianei me te huarahi o nāianei e kī ana ka taea te whakatutuki."
Ko NREL te taiwhanga ā-motu matua a te Tari Pūngao o Amerika mō te rangahau me te whanaketanga o te pūngao whakahou me te whai huatanga o te pūngao. E whakahaerehia ana a NREL mā te DOE e te Alliance for Sustainable Energy LLC.
Wā tuku: Paenga-whāwhā-26-2023